Change Progression Scenario Method: A Systematic Literature Review of Applications

Abstract

The Change Progression Scenario Method (CPSM) offers a unique approach to strategic planning by challenging the conventional assumption that the future will unfold in a predictable, linear manner. CPSM actively explores potential future scenarios within four levels of change: No Change, Marginal Change, Adaptive Change, and Radical Change. This method is systematically analyzed in thirty-one studies across various domains including policy, government, schooling, buildings, and development. The review consolidates the practical applications of CPSM and positions it as a middle-range theory for diagnosing system changes. CPSM elucidates why and how systems often resist significant transformations, even during crises. In diverse contexts, stakeholders tend to gravitate towards adaptive changes, creating what the review terms an adaptive trap, a preference for adjustments that preserve fundamental beliefs, identities, and power structures. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that CPSM achieves its most comprehensive understanding when integrated with Causal Layered Analysis and the Futures Triangle. This integration ensures that superficial policy changes align with deeper shifts in worldviews and linguistic practices. The review underscores the particular utility of CPSM in post-colonial and Global South settings, where it can challenge externally imposed futures and promote alternative knowledge systems. However, the review also notes potential misuses of CPSM, such as its co-optation by those in power or superficial application of drastic options. The work concludes by identifying gaps in current understanding, particularly the lack of long-term studies on CPSM’s implementation, and emphasizes its critical role in diagnosing the challenges of achieving meaningful change in governance.