Climate change impacts and responses (e.g., mitigation, adaptation) affect human health and the environment and are part of complex, nonlinear systems spanning social, technological, environmental, economic, and political domains. The complexity, uncertainty, and long-term timeframes of these systems call for anticipatory approaches to planning and conducting science that informs protection of human health and the environment. The Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the United States Environmental Protection Agency conducted a pilot horizon scan to (1) identify emerging trends and signals of climate change impacts on environmental protection to inform ORD strategic research planning and (2) advance ORD’s capacity and methods to integrate strategic foresight into research planning. The horizon scanning team developed 12 diverse signals through scoping the topic’s boundaries and domains, environmental scanning of internal and external perspectives, signal definition, and iterative signal narrowing. The team also identified indicators of change for ORD to track over the near- and long-term. This pilot built strategic foresight capacity within ORD and highlighted considerations for integrating horizon scanning into ORD’s culture and processes, including formalizing the activity as an ongoing component of strategic research planning, further capacity building, and regular evaluation and reporting of intermediate results and impact.
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ChooChun Wei. 2005. “The Art of Scanning the Environment.” Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science and Technology25 (3): 21–24. https://doi.org/10.1002/bult.117
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FryMSinhaPJuliusS. 2022. Fact Sheet: A Handbook to Assist with Planning for Extreme Climate Events when You Have Contaminated Sites and Waste Facilities in Your Community. Washington, DC: U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development.
GreenblottJoseph M.O’FarrellThomasOlsonRobertBurchardBeth. 2018. “Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government: a Survey of Methods, Resources, and Institutional Arrangements.” World Futures Review11 (3): 245–66. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718814908
HinesAndyBengstonDavid N.DockryMichael J.CowartAdam. 2018. “Setting up a Horizon Scanning System: a U.S. Federal Agency Example.” World Futures Review10 (2): 136–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717749613
IdenJonMethlieLeif B.ChristensenGunnar E.. 2017. “The Nature of Strategic Foresight Research: a Systematic Literature Review.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change116: 87–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.002
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JayAlexa K.CrimminsAllison R.AveryChristopher W.DahlTravis A.DodderRebecca S.HamlingtonBenjamin D.LustigAllyzaMarvelKateMéndez-LazaroPablo A.OslerMark S.TerandoAdamWeeksEmily S.ZychermanAriela. 2023. “Overview: Understanding Risks, Impacts, and Responses.” In Fifth National Climate Assessment, edited by CrimminsA. R.AveryC. W.EasterlingD. R.KunkelK. E.StewartB. C.MaycockT. K.. Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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SinghDeeptiCrimminsAllison R.PflugJustin M.BarnardPatrick L.HelgesonJennifer F.HoellAndrewJacobsFayola H.JacoxMichael G.JerollemanAlessandraWehnerMichael F.. 2023. “Focus on Compound Events.” In Fifth National Climate Assessment, edited by CrimminsA. R.AveryC. W.EasterlingD. R.KunkelK. E.StewartB. C.MaycockT. K.. Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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