As science and technology change our world, anticipating the unintended consequences becomes critical. This article presents a framework for identifying unintended consequences, especially unanticipated-unintended consequences, and prioritizing the necessary actions to mitigate or adapt. Content for the framework, and the distinctions among the anticipated-intended, anticipated-unintended, and unanticipated-unintended consequences, are generated with four scenario types: evolution over time, market-saturation, interventions in tightly coupled systems, and existential risk of human extinction. To validate the framework, each scenario type is applied to historical and emerging technologies to anticipate the unintended consequences, including the causes, initiators, effects, actions to mitigate or adapt, and unmet obligations to future generations.
ArthurBrian W.2009. The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. New York: Simon & Schuster.
6.
AshJoan S.SittigDean F.CampbellEmily M.GuapponeKenneth P.DykstraRichard H.2007. “Some Unintended Consequences of Clinical Decision Support Systems.” AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings2007:26–30.
7.
BaertPatrick. 1991. “Unintended Consequences: A Typology and Examples.” International Sociology6 (2): 201–10.
8.
BainbridgeWilliam Sims. 2009. “Motivitations for Space Exploration.” Futures41 (8): 514–22.
9.
BaumSeth D.2015. “Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter.” Futures72:69–79.
10.
BaumSeth D.DenkenbergerDavid C.PearceJoshua M.RobockAlanWinklerRichelle. 2015. “Resilience to Global Food Supply Catastrophes.” Environment Systems & Decisions35 (2): 301–13.
11.
BaumSeth D.TonnBruce E.2015. “Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity.” Futures72:1–3.
12.
BellWendell. 1993. “Why Should We Care about Future Generations.” In The Years Ahead: Perils, Problems, and Promises, edited by DisburyHoward, 25–41. Washington, DC: World Future Society.
BloomrosenMerylStarrenJustinLorenziNancy M.AshJoan S.PatelVimla L.ShortliffeEdward H.2011. “Anticipating and Addressing the Unintended Consequences of Health IT and Policy: A Report from the AMIA 2009 Health Policy Meeting.” Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association18 (1): 82–90.
15.
BodanskyDaniel. 1991. “Law: Scientific Uncertainty and the Precautionary Principle.” Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development33 (7): 4–44.
16.
BostromNick. 2002. “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards.” Journal of Evolution & Technology9 (1): 1–37.
17.
BostromNick. 2014. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
18.
BozemanBarryRossiniFrederick A.1979. “Technology Assessment and Political Decision-Making.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change15:25–35.
19.
BuszaWitJaffeRobert L.SandweissJackWilczekFrank. 1999. “Review of Speculative ‘Disaster Scenarios’ at RHIC.” [Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider]. Formal Report, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Shirley, NY.
CetronM. J.ConnorL. W.1972. “A Method for Planning and Assessing Technology against Relevant National Goals in Developing Countries.” In The Methodology of Technology Assessment, by, CetronM. J.BartochaB.1–34. New York: Gordon and Breach.
25.
ChenKan. 1979. “International Perspectives on Technology Assessment.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change13:213–33.
26.
ChenYuyuEbensteinAvrahamGreenstoneMichaelLiHongbin. 2013. “Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River policy.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America110 (32): 12936–41.
27.
CherkaoiMohamed. 2007. Good Intentions: Max Weber and the Paradox of Unintended Consequences. Oxford: Bardwell Press.
28.
CoatesJoseph. 1976. “Technology Assessment Toolkit.” Chemtech (North Holland)6 (6): 372–83.
29.
CoatesJoseph F.2009. “Risks and Threats to Civilization, Humankind, and the Earth.” Futures41 (10): 694–705.
30.
CoatesVaryFarooqueMahmudKlavansRichardLapidKotyLinstoneHarold A.PistoriusCarlPorterAlan L.2001. “On the Future of Technological Forecasting.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change67:1–17.
31.
DarArnonDe RújulaAlvaro. 2008. “A Theory of Cosmic Rays.” Physics Reports466 (6): 179–241.
DenkenbergerDavid C.PearceJoshua M.2015. “Feeding Everyone: Solving the Food Crisis in Event of Global Catastrophes that Kill Crops or Obscure the Sun.” Futures72:57–68.
34.
DiamondJared. 1997. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. New York: W.W. Norton.
35.
DiamondJared. 2005. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Penguin.
36.
DincerIbrahim. 1999. “Environmental Impacts of Energy.” Energy Policy27 (14): 845–54.
37.
DonnJeffMendozaMarthaPritchardJustin. 2009. “Pharmawater I: Pharmaceuticals Found in Drinking Water, Affecting Wildlife and Maybe Humans.” Associated Press Investigations, March10.
38.
DoudnaJennifer A.SternbergSamuel H.2017. A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
39.
ErkkiläTero. 2012. Government Transparency: Impacts and Unintended Consequences. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
FosterKenneth R.VecchiaPaoloRepacholiMichael H.2000. “Science and the Precautionary Principle.” Science288 (5468): 979–81.
42.
FredricksonLeif. 2017. “Bio-Invasions and Bio-Fixes: Mysis Shrimp Introductions in the Twentieth Century.” Environment and History23 (2): 285–320.
43.
FullbrookEdward. 1986. “Descartes’ Legacy: Intersubjective Reality, Intrasubjective Theory.” In The Elgar Companion to Economics and Philosophy, edited by DavisJohn BryanMaricanoAlainRundeJochen, 403–22. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
44.
GardnerHowardDavisKatie. 2013. The App Generation: How Today’s Youth Navigate Identity, Intimacy, and Imagination in a Digital World. New Haven: Yale University Press.
45.
GlennJerome C.1972. “Futurizing Teaching vs. Futures Course.” Social Science RecordIX (3): 26–29.
GriffinJames M.2013. “U.S. Ethanol Policy: Time to Reconsider?” The Energy Journal34 (4): 1–25.
50.
HaraiYuval Noah. 2017. Homo Deus. Paris: Albin Michel.
51.
HarrisonMichael I.KoppelRossBar-LevShirly. 2007. “Unintended Consequences of Information Technologies in Health Care—An Interactive Sociotechnical Analysis.” Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association14 (5): 542–49.
HendryxMichaelHollandBenjamin. 2016. “Unintended Consequences of the Clean Air Act: Mortality Rates in Appalachian Coal Mining Communities.” Environmental Science & Policy65:1–6.
54.
HeskethThereseLuLiXingZhu Wei. 2005. “The Effect of China’s One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years.” New England Journal of Medicine353:1171–76.
55.
HollandStephen P.HughesJonathan E.KnittelChristopher R.ParkerNathan C.2013. “Unintended Consequences of Transportation Carbon Policies: Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation.” Working Paper 19636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
56.
HortonRichard. 2005. “Threats to Human Survival: A Wire to Warn the World.” The Lancet365:191–93.
57.
HuangLuZhangYiGuoYingZhuDonghuaPorterAlan L.2014. “Four-Dimensional Science and Technology Planning: A New Approach Based on Bibliometrics and Technology Roadmapping.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change81:39–48.
JacksonRobert B.SalzmanJames E.2010. “Pursuing Geoengineering for Atmospheric Restoration.” Issues in Science and Technology26:67–76.
60.
JaegerAudrey J.EagenM. KevinJr.2009. “Unintended Consequences: Examining the Effect of Part-Time Faculty Members on Associate’s Degree Completion.” Community College Review36 (3): 167–94.
KabirEva RahmanRahmanMonica SharfinRahmanImon. 2015. “A Review on Endocrine Disruptors and Their Possible Impacts on Human Health.” Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology40 (1): 241–58.
64.
KellyKevin. 2011. What Technology Wants. New York: Penguin.
65.
KoehnDaryl. 2010. Living with the Dragon: Acting Ethically in a World of Unintended Consequences. New York: Routledge.
66.
KruparJason N.2005. “Mao’s War against Nature: Politics and the Environment in Revolutionary China.” Journal of Cold War Studies7 (4): 174–76.
67.
KurzweilRay. 2005. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin.
68.
Lacy-HulbertAdamMetcalfeJames C.HeskethRobin. 1998. “Biological Responses to Electromagnetic Fields.” The FASEB Journal12 (6): 395–420.
69.
LeeAlfred M.BereanoPhilip L.1981. “Developing Technology Assessment Methodology: Some Insights and Experiences.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change19:15–31.
70.
LeggettMark. 2006. “An Indicative Costed Plan for the Mitigation of Global Risks.” Futures38 (7): 778–809.
71.
LeslieJohn A.1996. The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. London: Routledge.
72.
LingLosee L.SchneiderTanjaPeoplesAaron J.SpoeringAmy L.EngelsInaConlonBrian P.MuellerAnnaet al. 2015. “A New Antibiotic Kills Pathogens without Detectable Resistance.” Nature517:455–59.
73.
LinstoneHarold A.2001. “TF/TA: New Driving Forces.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change68 (3): 309–13.
MertonRobert K.1936. “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action.” American Sociological Review1:894–904.
80.
MinowNewtonLaMayCraig. 1996. Abandoned in the Wasteland: Children, Television, and the First Amendment. New York: Hill & Wang.
81.
MobergCarol L.1999. “René Dubos, a Harbinger of Microbial Resistance to Antibiotics.” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine42 (4): 559–80.
82.
MonsefHesham Abd-ElSmithScot E.DarwishKamal. 2015. “Impacts of the Aswan High Dam after 50 Years.” Water Resources Management29:1873–85.
83.
MorganDennis Ray. 2009. “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race.” Futures41 (10): 683–93.
84.
NathanCarl. 2004. “Antibiotics at the Crossroads.” Nature431:899–902.
OlivierJos G. J.Janssens-MaenhoutGreetMunteanMarilenaPetersJeroen A. H. W.2016. “Trends in Global CO2 Emissions: 2016 Report.” Trends, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and European Commission Joint Research Centre, The Hague.
87.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.2017. “SF2.1 Fertility Rates.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.
Perri. 2014. “Explaining Decision-Making in Government: The Neo-Durkheimian Institutional Framework.” Public Administration92 (1): 87–103.
90.
PopperKarl Raimund. 2002. The Poverty of Historicism. New York: Psychology Press.
91.
PorterAlan L.1991. Forecasting and Management of Technology. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
92.
PorterAlan L.RossiniFrederick A.CarpenterStanley R.1980. Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis. New York: North Holland.
93.
PosnerRichard A.2004. Catastrophe: Risk and Response. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
94.
PutnamRobert D.2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. Vol. 6. New York: Simon & Schuster.
95.
ReesMartin. 2003. Our Final Hour: A Scientist’s Warning: How Terror, Error and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind’s Future in This Century - on Earth and Beyond. New York, New York: Basic Books.
RogersEverett M.2003. Diffusion of Innovations. 5th ed.New York: Free Press.
98.
RubinJonathan. 2016. “Connected Autonomous Vehicles: Travel Behavior and Energy Use.” In Road Vehicle Automation 3, edited by MeyerGereonBeikerSven, 151–62. New York: Springer.
SmithMary LeeRottenbergClaire. 1991. “Unintended Consequences of External Testing in Elementary Schools.” Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice10 (4): 7–11.
106.
SongChie HoonElversDavidLekerJens. 2017. “Anticipation of Converging Technology Areas—A Refined Approach for the Identification of Attractive Fields of Innovation.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change116:98–115.
107.
TandocEdson C.Jr.FerrucciPatrickDuffyMargaret. 2015. “Facebook Use, Envy, and Depression among College Students: Is Facebooking Depressing?” Computers in Human Behavior43:139–46.
108.
ThakurRamesh ChandraAoiChiyukiDe ConingCedric. 2007. Unintended Consequences of Peacekeeping Operations. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
109.
The Economist. 2006. “Ethanol: The Law of Unintended Consequences.” October25.
110.
The World Bank. 2006. “Gender Gaps in China: Facts and Figures.” Report, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
TonnBruceStiefelDorian. 2014. “Human Extinction Risk and Uncertainty: Assessing Conditions for Action.” Futures63:134–44.
118.
TonnBruceStiefelDorian. 2017. “Anticipating the Unintended Consequences of Science and Technology.” Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Washington, DC, December6.
119.
Turcotte-TremblayAnne-MarieGali-GaliIdriss AliDe AllegriManuelaRiddeValéry. 2017. “The Unintended Consequences of Community Verifications for Performance-Based Financing in Burkina Faso.” Social Science & Medicine91:226–36.
120.
TurkleSherry. 2017. Alone Together: Why We Expect More from Technology and Less from Each Other. London: Hachette UK.
121.
United Kingdom Treasury. 2006. “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” Formal Report. London: United Kingdom Treasury.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2015. “U.S. Census Bureau History: Public Broadcasting.” Report: U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
125.
United States Senate. 1990. “Public Law 101-549 Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.” 101st Congress. United States Congress, District of Columbia, November 15.
126.
van den EndeJanMulderKarelKnotMarjolijnMoorsEllenVergragtPhilip. 1998. “Traditional and Modern Technology Assessment: Toward a Toolkit.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change58:5–21.
127.
VernonRichard. 1979. “Unintended Consequences.” Political Theory7 (1): 57–73.
128.
VingeVerner. 1993. “Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace.” NASA Conference Publication, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Westlake, March30–31.
129.
WeisserDaniel. 2007. “A Guide to Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Electric Supply Technologies.” Energy32 (9): 1543–59.
130.
WiseAmberO’BrienKacieWoodruffTracey. 2011. “Are Oral Contraceptives a Significant Contributor to the Estrogenicity of Drinking Water?” Environmental Science & Technology45 (1): 51–60.
131.
WolskoChristopherMarinoElizabeth. 2016. “Disasters, Migrations, and the Unintended Consequences of Urbanization: What’s the Harm in Getting Out of Harm’s Way?” Population and Environment37 (4): 411–28.
