Baseline Analysis: The Epistemology of Scenario Support

Abstract

Foresight professionals have been developing and sharing scenarios about the future for a half century now. They argue that the only way to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties about the future is to offer multiple futures (scenarios) rather than single-valued predictions. Nevertheless, most forecasters still make predictions because the process of supporting them with evidence is well known and similar to supporting conclusions in history and science. This article presents an argument for supporting scenarios using evidence through a process of critically thinking about the assumptions required to support the most likely future. Using this more transparent approach allows other professionals to understand, discuss, and critique the support for scenarios as they do the conclusions in other disciplines. That ability to peer review futures work could build the foundation for a measure of credibility and legitimacy that those other disciplines enjoy.