Conducting an Innovations/Issues Change Tracking and Forecasting Term Project in an Undergraduate Futures Studies Course

Abstract

For the past three years, while teaching an Introduction to Global Futures Studies course at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Seoul, Korea), the “Innovations/Issues Change Tracking and Forecasting Term Project” has been an essential component of the course. This group project (5-7 in a group) includes individual reports and presentations divided into three sections: (1) past changes, (2) present changes, and (3) forecasts of three to five scenarios. Progressive stages of the project are based on research assignments, which are foresight exercises that build upon each other: (1) online environmental scanning—where students scan online for STEEP (Social–Technological–Economical-Environmental–Political) innovations and issues to consider for the project; (2) change tracking of the selected innovation/issue—where changes are tracked from origin to present within a 5-25 year time range; (3) present time change tracking—where students research and analyze recent impacts and changes to the chosen innovation/issue; (4) in-class timeline construction—where all results are fused into one timeline; and (5) in-class futures wheel scenario constructions. Based on the results, 3-5 scenarios are constructed (from a future time frame of either 5, 10, 15, 20 or 25 years), and should include: (1) a baseline scenario—a trend-based continuation of past changes (from STEEP categories); (2) an alternative futures scenario—based on weak signals within present changes; and (3) a “wild card” scenario—a speculative attempt to foresee the unforeseeable. This article will report on the stages of development, student experiences, and results of the term project.