An Operational Process for Organizational Foresight and Anticipation

Abstract

A coherent theoretical framework is introduced that adopts Manoa School’s four alternative futures to help make sense and investigate the four building blocks of the future, which are trends, events, images, and actions in three layers of organization, region, and the globe in terms of social, technological, environmental, economic, and political areas. Qualitative system dynamics mapping also provides insight into the systematic interactions such as long chains of perceived causation, and identification of reinforcing and balancing loops in addition to the overall system behavior, and the underlying story, in each alternative future. Linking strategic foresight to concrete specific actions is accomplished by referring to a professionally developed horizon scanning and monitoring database. Each news item is analyzed through an operational process that (1) uncovers the dynamics of each scenario seen from alternative mental models of analysts; (2) assesses the eventual impacts on the value system, that is, strategic preferences, through searching for cause and effect chains that influence them; and (3) encourages creativity in suggestion of concrete necessary actions in each part of the organizational chart to sustain profitability, to achieve other values, and to prepare thoughtful practical responses to upcoming challenges and opportunities.