Compensatory Optimism as Adaptive Resilience in a Warming World

Abstract

Global warming is altering human habitats, propelling infectious diseases and socioeconomic stressors from tropical regions into temperate zones. Contrary to expectations of rising pessimism under such environmental pressures, this study finds that shared optimism—the collective degree of expectation regarding personal life progress—can persist and even flourish there. Drawing on survey data from nearly two million native inhabitants of 166 countries, we examine the extent to which relatively high levels of shared optimism may function as a compensatory mechanism for coping with environmental adversity. We identify year-round tropical stability in daylength, temperature, and precipitation periods as a key factor linked to steep increases in shared optimism over a 5-year horizon. That relation is mediated by chronic stressors, including parasite burden, national poverty, and social inequality, and is generalizable to long-term optimism about collective human progress over the next millennium. These findings reveal a meaningful contrast in the temporal prospect gradient of shared optimism: compensatory optimism displays a steep upward trajectory in stable yet chronically stressful tropical environments, whereas noncompensatory optimism follows a gentler ascent in variable and less stressful environments. This distinction informs the hypothesis that compensatory optimism serves as a rapidly activated resilience mechanism, offering governing bodies a psychobehavioral tool to support communities facing intensifying environmental stress. As climate change expands, the dynamics we document may become increasingly relevant. Societies may more effectively adapt to the multifaceted consequences of global warming by recognizing and leveraging the rise of compensatory optimism in the Anthropocene.