Historical Range,Past Declines and Future Niche Suitability of Populations of Frogs of the Genus Dryadobates in the Atlantic Forest

Abstract

Background and Research Aims: The loss of biodiversity in the contemporary era is largely driven by human activities such as deforestation, agriculture, and urbanization, and is further exacerbated by climate change. Amphibians, particularly anurans, are especially vulnerable due to their reliance on aquatic ecosystems and limited dispersal abilities, with habitat loss, disease, and climate change causing severe population declines, notably in the Atlantic Forest. One approach to uncover these subtle declines is through the analysis of individual historical records. This study aims to examine the spatiotemporal records of Dryadobates spp. populations from the Atlantic Forest, assessing historical trends and predicting future habitat changes under climate change scenarios. Methods: A comprehensive review was conducted, including literature records, specimens from scientific collections, and expert communications. Spatiotemporal data on Dryadobates spp. populations were compiled and analyzed. Ecological niche models were employed to predict the distribution and habitat suitability of Dryadobates spp. under future climate change scenarios. Results: We identified a significant reduction in sampling for Dryadobates spp. during the 1980s and 1990s, with an absence of resampling for over 35 years in a third of the sites with historical records. However, some populations have been rediscovered since 2000, mirroring patterns observed for other anuran species in the Atlantic Forest. Ecological niche models indicated a substantial reduction and fragmentation of suitable habitat for this genus under future climate change scenarios, particularly in the southeastern portion of its distribution. Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of combining historical data with future projections to gain a comprehensive understanding of Dryadobates spp. population dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into the factors driving population declines and habitat loss and forms a foundation for targeted conservation efforts. Implications for Conservation: Maintaining habitat connectivity and addressing climate change impacts are critical priorities for the conservation of Atlantic Forest anurans. Conservation strategies should include preserving undisturbed forests, restoring fragmented habitats, and engaging local communities to protect amphibian biodiversity in this globally significant hotspot. By implementing these measures, the long-term survival of Dryadobates spp. populations and the ecological integrity of the Atlantic Forest can be better ensured.