Are Out-of-State Players the Target Market? A Geospatial Analysis of the Gambling Export Strategy in the United States

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests that gambling venues are often placed in locations to attract players from outside the jurisdiction, as part of a gambling export strategy. This strategy may be appealing, as it can simultaneously increase local economic impacts while decreasing the proportional share of social costs to the host jurisdiction. This study examines the relative use of the gambling export strategy in the United States by developing a geospatial model of potential U.S. consumer demand to understand whether casinos are systematically located to attract out-of-state players. Based on 1,481 gambling venues found in the country, our naïve model indicates that 31.7% of potential demand in the United States is closer to an out-of-state casino than an in-state casino. Our discount model that accounts for distance indicates that this translates to 20.7% of potential demand in the United States. The results show significant difference at the state level, with out-of-state potential demand estimates ranging from 0% to 71.2%. These findings suggest that there may be further development in the U.S. gambling market as jurisdictions seek to recapture their own residents who are gambling out-of-state.