Abstract
The EU is at a crossroads, both in terms of its internal constitutional reform and the integration of new member states. Hence, deepening and enlargement are inseparably linked together. In the context of the 2024 European elections and the constitution of a new European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen, the Martens Centre commissioned Brussels-based IPSOS to conduct a data-driven survey across all 27 EU member states.
To better understand EU citizens’ attitudes and their views towards the enlargement and deepening of the EU, the research project inquired different socio-demographic groups and countries and looked closely at several dimensions: the conceptions of ‘Europe’; the potential accession of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, and the Western Balkan countries; the various models of integration; and changes within the European Treaties.
The study reveals that although there is optimism about the future of Europe, significant dissatisfaction exists, with 41% of citizens discontent with the EU's current functioning. Support for further enlargement, particularly to include Ukraine and the Western Balkans, varies widely, with Central and Eastern European nations showing more enthusiasm than Western counterparts, where Euroscepticism is more prominent.
A key finding is the division of opinions regarding the future of Europe, with some advocating for a stronger, more integrated Union, while others favour maintaining or reducing the Union's competencies. Socioeconomic factors such as age, education and political values significantly shape these perspectives. There is widespread concern about the economic, political and security implications of expanding the EU, particularly regarding the management of migration and economic disparities between member and candidate nations.
The paper also notes the decline in support for enlargement since 2004, linked to fears of economic imbalances and the failure to manage migration effectively. Citizens remain cautious about future enlargement rounds, particularly regarding their impact on the current member states. The Copenhagen criteria, particularly in terms of democratic stability and rule of law, are viewed as non-negotiable prerequisites for any future accession.
Finally, the study emphasizes the need for EU institutions and political parties to improve communication strategies to better align with citizens' concerns and highlight the tangible benefits of enlargement. Tailored approaches for different citizen groups are suggested to ensure broader support for both enlargement and deeper integration.
Footnotes
Author biography