Abstract
Aim:
In recent years, dengue outbreaks in major urban areas have increased, a trend associated with rising temperatures. This study aims to analyze the incidence of dengue cases in metropolitan Lima during the 2023–2024 period and evaluate their relationship with urban heat islands (UHIs), linked to vegetation cover and distribution.
Methods:
This ecological study evaluated how some environmental factors (vegetation, solid waste, and poverty) could contribute to the distribution and increase of cases in 2023 and 2024 in the 43 districts of metropolitan Lima. Both years of study corresponded to epidemiological week 18. The data were obtained from the Dengue Daily Situation Room of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) of the Ministry of Health. We evaluate the spatial distribution of dengue cases by UHI and zones. A negative binomial model adjusted for poverty and population density was used to determine the association.
Results:
The most elevated UHIs occurred in the districts of Lurigancho, Ate, Pachacamac, San Juan de Miraflores, and Villa María del Triunfo. The northern zone of Lima had the highest number of dengue cases in the first 15 epidemiological weeks. Higher dengue cases were observed in elevated UHI in both years. Dengue was inversely correlated with vegetation in 2024 (p ⩽ .05). Compared to the incidence of cases in 2023, the incidence in 2024 was approximately twice in the more elevated UHI category (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 3.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–8.80), suggesting that dengue infections are increasing in districts with high UHI and lower green areas, adjusted for poverty and population density.
Conclusions:
In metropolitan Lima, our research has revealed that the higher the presence of UHI, the higher the number of dengue cases in both 2023 and 2024, and urban vegetation could decrease the number of cases. These findings underline the importance of considering environmental factors in dengue-prevention strategies in urban areas.
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Supplementary Material
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