Tactical factors that influence shooting success in the Chinese Football Association Super League

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the tactical factors influencing shooting success in the Chinese Football Association Super League (CSL). The data set comprised 5914 shooting actions collected from all 240 matches in the CSL 2018 season, featuring 16 different teams. The variables assessed included pass number (PN), playing minute (M), match status (MS), final passing area (FPA), regaining possession position (RPP), offense category (OC), and shooting position (SP). To distinguish the attacking patterns of teams of varying strengths, all 16 teams were clustered into two groups based on two contextual factors: their starting season budgets and their rankings at the end of the season. Firstly, a descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by the application of a binomial-logit model (p < 0.05). The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method was employed to evaluate the factors impacting shooting success. The results revealed that: (1) Match status (p = 0.0412), regaining possession position (p = 0.0002), and shooting position (p = 0.0001) play important roles in shooting success for all teams. (2) For strong teams, the offense category (p = 0.0031) and the final passing area (p = 0.0027) also have an important influence on shooting success. (3) The tactics of the weak teams should focus especially on the final passing area (p = 0.0388) before shooting at the goal. These findings can provide guidance for coaches in developing more effective scoring strategies or defensive tactics and tailoring them appropriately to the strengths and weaknesses of their respective teams.