On the process of research leading to breakthroughs in risk and safety science

Abstract

In this paper, four experienced risk and safety scientists provide some reflections on research in risk and safety science. The shared experience is of the process of research development leading to valuable research findings—and in particular breakthroughs: How was the problem identified and defined, and how were novel features and ideas introduced to address it? Where did the new insights come from? What was the role of collaboration and discussion with other scientists?

Keywords

risk science safety science uncertainties risk governance research process breakthroughs risk analysis

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Cumming

. Is risk assessment a science? Risk Anal 1981; 1: 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01347.x

Weinberg

. Reflections on risk assessment. Risk Anal 1981; 1: 5–7. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01348.x

Watson

. The meaning of probability in probabilistic safety analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 1994; 45(3): 261–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(94)90142-2

Apostolakis

. How useful is quantitative risk assessment? Risk Anal 2004; 24(3): 515–520. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00455.x

NRC. Science and decisions: advancing risk assessment. The National Academies Press, 2009.

Apostolakis

. The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science 1990; 250(4986): 1359–1364. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.2255906

Aven

. Risk analysis and science. Int J Reliab Qual Saf Eng 2004; 11: 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218539304001300

Aven

. Quantitative risk assessment. The Scientific Platform. Cambridge University Press, 2011.

SRA. RISK newsletter, First Quarter 1986; 6(1), https://www.sra.org/risk-newsletter-archive/

10.

SRA. RISK newsletter, Second Quarter 1992; 12(2).

11.

SRA. RISK newsletter, First Quarter 2000; 20(1).

12.

SRA. RISK newsletter, Third Quarter 2000; 20(3).

13.

Thompson

Deisler

Schwing

. Interdisciplinary vision: the first 25 years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980–2005. Risk Anal 2005; 25: 1333–1386. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00702.x

14.

Aven

. A history of risk science: concepts and principles of risk analysis. Routledge, 2025.

15.

Snider

. Reaching professional status: A program for risk management. In: Corporate risk management: current problems and perspectives. Vol. 112. American Management Association, 1956, pp.30–35.

16.

Mehr

Hedges

. Risk management in the business enterprise. Irwin, 1963.

17.

Hansson

. Defining pseudoscience and science. In: Pigliucci

Boudry

(eds) Philosophy of pseudoscience. University of Chicago Press, 2013, pp.61–77.

18.

Hansson

Aven

. Is risk analysis scientific? Risk Anal 2014; 34(7): 1173–1183. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12230

19.

Aven

Zio

. Foundational issues in risk analysis. Risk Anal 2014; 34(7): 1164–1172. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12132

20.

Aven

. An emerging new risk analysis science: foundations and implications. Risk Anal 2018; 38(5): 876–888. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12899

21.

Aven

Thekdi

. Risk science: an introduction. Routledge, 2022.

22.

Perrow

. Normal accidents – living with high-risk technologies. Basic Books, 1984.

23.

LaPorte

Consolini

. Working in practice but not in theory: theoretical challenges of “High-Reliability Organizations”. J Public Adm Res Theory 1991; 1: 19–47. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.jpart.a037070

24.

Weick

Sutcliffe

. Managing the unexpected. Jossey-Bass, 2001.

25.

Thompson

. Organizations in action: social science bases of administration. McGraw-Hill, 1967.

26.

Van de Ven

Ganco

Hinings

. Returning to the frontier of contingency theory of organizational and institutional designs. Acad Manag Ann 2013; 7: 393–440. https://doi.org/10.5465/19416520.2013.774981

27.

Aven

Renn

. On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. J Risk Res 2009; 12(1): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870802488883

28.

Wall

Cordery

Clegg

. Empowerment, performance, and operational uncertainty: a theoretical integration. Appl Psychol 2002; 51: 146–169. https://doi.org/10.1111/1464-0597.00083

29.

March

. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organ Sci 1991; 2(1): 71–87. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.71

30.

Grote

. Promoting safety by increasing uncertainty – implications for risk management. Saf Sci 2015; 71: 71–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2014.02.010

31.

Morrison

. Voice and silence within organizations: literature review and directions for future research. Acad Manag Ann 2011; 5: 373–412. https://doi.org/10.5465/19416520.2011.574506

32.

Kolbe

Burtscher

Wacker

, et al. Speaking up is related to better team performance in simulated anesthesia inductions. An observational study. Anesth Anal 2012; 115: 1099–1108. https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0b013e318269cd32

33.

Bienefeld

Grote

. Silence that may kill: when aircrew members don’t speak up and why. Aviat Psychol Appl Hum Factors 2012; 2: 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1027/2192-0923/a000021

34.

Raemer

Kolbe

Minehart

RBD

, et al. Improving anesthesiologists’ ability to speak up in the operating room: a randomized controlled experiment of a simulation-based intervention and a qualitative analysis of hurdles and enablers. Acad Med 2016; 91: 530–539. https://doi.org/10.1097/ACM.0000000000001033

35.

Grote

Weichbrodt

Günter

, et al. Coordination in high-risk organizations: the need for flexible routines. Cogn Technol Work 2009; 11: 17–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10111-008-0119-y

36.

Hale

Borys

. Working to rule or working safely? Part 2: the management of safety rules and procedures. Saf Sci 2013; 55: 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.05.013

37.

Grote

. Safety and autonomy: a contradiction forever? Saf Sci 2020; 127: 104709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104709

38.

Weiss

Kolbe

Grote

, et al. Why didn’t you say something? Effects of after-event reviews on voice behaviour and hierarchy beliefs in multi-professional action teams. Eur J Work Organ Psychol 2017; 26: 66–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/1359432x.2016.1208652

39.

Griffin

Grote

. When is more uncertainty better? A model of uncertainty regulation and effectiveness. Acad Manag Rev 2020; 45: 745–765. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2018.0271

40.

Magni

Gerlach

Pfrombeck

, et al. Mind the unknown: conceptual development and validation of the uncertainty mindset. In: Poster presented at the 40th annual conference of the society for industrial and organizational psychology (SIOP), Denver, CO, USA, 2025.

41.

Pfrombeck

Zaniboni

Grote

. An uncertainty mindset intervention during job search. In: Paper submitted to the 41st annual conference of the society for industrial and organizational psychology (SIOP), 2025.

42.

Takizawa

Marx-Fleck

Gerlach

, et al. The role of uncertainty mindsets in shaping diversity attitudes and their downstream effects on commitment to societal change and right-wing populist voting. Pers Soc Psychol Bull 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672251386487

43.

Read

GJM

Shorrock

Walker

, et al. State of science: evolving perspectives on ‘human error’. Ergonomics 2021; 64(9): 1091–1114. https://doi.org/10.1080/00140139.2021.1953615

44.

Sugawara

. Addressing “beyond control”: nuclear safety goals in the age of risk governance. J Risk Res 2025; 28: 231–246. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2024.2368188

45.

Nolan-McSweeney

Ryan

Cobb

. Interviews with rail industry leaders about systems thinking in the management of organisational change and risk management. Saf Sci 2023; 164: 106168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106168

46.

Pilbeam

Denyer

Sutliff

. Guided by principles or rules: a Delphi study on how safety professionals frame safety practices. Saf Sci 2025; 184: 106772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106772

47.

Constantinides

Monteiro

Mathiassen

. Human-AI joint task performance: learning from uncertainty in autonomous driving systems. Inf Organ 2024; 34: 100502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoandorg.2024.100502

48.

Löfstedt

. Risk management in post-trust societies. Palgrave Macmillan, 2005.

49.

Probst

Brubaker

. The effects of job insecurity on employee safety outcomes: cross-sectional and longitudinal explorations. J Occup Health Psychol 2001; 6: 139–159. https://doi.org/10.1037/1076-8998.6.2.139

50.

Probst

Barbaranelli

Petitta

. The relationship between job insecurity and accident under-reporting: a test in two countries. Work Stress 2013; 27: 383–402. https://doi.org/10.1080/02678373.2013.850756

51.

Renn

Walker

. (eds) The IRGC risk governance framework: concepts and practice. Springer, 2008.

52.

IRGC (International Risk Governance Council). Risk governance: towards an integrative approach (white paper no. 1). International Risk Governance Center, 2005.

53.

IRGC (International Risk Governance Council). An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework. EPFL International Risk Governance Center, 2017.

54.

Renn

. Risk governance: coping with uncertainty in a complex world. Earthscan, 2008.

55.

Renn

Walker

. Lessons learned: a re-assessment of the IRGC framework on risk governance. In: Renn

Walker

(eds) The IRGC risk governance framework: concepts and practice. Springer, 2008, pp.331–367.

56.

Armitage

Marschke

Plummer

. Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning. Glob Environ Change 2008; 18(1): 86–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.07.002

57.

Rosa

Renn

McCright

. The risk society revisited: social theory and governance. Temple University Press, 2014.

58.

Kahneman

. Thinking, fast and slow. Penguin, 2012.

59.

Reese

Gandy

Jr Grant

. Framing public life: perspectives on media and our understanding of the social world. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001.

60.

Klinke

Renn

. Distributed responsibility in risk governance. In: Wilderer

Renn

Grambow

, et al. (eds) Sustainable risk management. Springer, 2018, pp. 19–31.

61.

OECD. Innovative citizen participation and new democratic institutions: catching the deliberative wave. OECD Publishing, 2020.

62.

Schweizer

Renn

Webler

. Conclusions and outlook. In: Renn

Webler

Schweizer

(eds) Fairness and competence in citizen participation. A critical review of formats for deliberative policymaking. Springer, 2025, pp.367–382.

63.

Renn

. Transdisciplinarity: synthesis towards a modular approach. Futures 2021; 130: 102744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102744

64.

Lawrence

Williams

Nanz

, et al. Characteristics, potentials, and challenges of transdisciplinary research. One Earth 2022; 5(1): 44–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.010

65.

Earle

Cvetkovich

. Risk communication: the social construction of meaning and trust. In: Brehmer

Sahlin

(eds) Future risks and risk management. Kluwer, 1994, pp.141–181.

66.

Baram

. The “right to know” and the duty to disclose hazard information. Am J Public Health 1984; 74(4): 385–390. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.74.4.385

67.

Klinke

Renn

. Adaptive and integrative governance on risk and uncertainty. J Risk Res 2012; 15(3): 273–292. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2011.636838

68.

Lawrence

Homer-Dixon

Janzwood

, et al. Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement–erratum. Glob Sustain 2024; 7: 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2024.48

69.

Liu

Renn

. Polycrisis and systemic risk: assessment, governance, and communication. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 2025; 16(4): 526–549. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00636-3