Foundational issues in relation to national risk assessment methodologies

Abstract

This article presents a study of key foundational issues in relation to two methodologies developed and used for assessing national risk events in Norway and the Netherlands. Both these methodologies are, to a large extent, probability based, but there are considerable differences in the approaches adopted. The main aim of the article is to point to these differences and relate the methodologies to existing theories for risk conceptualisation and description. Neither of the two methodologies are able to create a strong conceptual platform for the risk assessment, largely because they fail to clearly define and relate the core concepts of risk, probability and uncertainty. The treatment of uncertainty is another problematic issue, and we argue that both methodologies, but especially the Norwegian one, suffer from a severe weakness: key aspects of uncertainty are not adequately reflected. Finally, we question the way the Dutch methodology has integrated value aspects into the risk assessment.