Choosing a consumption strategy for a population of units based on reliability

Abstract

Managers and decision makers are often faced with difficult decisions balancing multiple competing objectives when selecting between several strategies for how to use the units in their inventory or stockpile. This paper considers how to define different metrics which appropriately summarize the objectives of a good strategy, how to consider what impact unanticipated changes in the future might have, and how to combine several criteria into a decision when no global winner is likely. This process is discussed in the context of maximizing the reliability of a population of single-use non-repairable units, such as missiles or batteries, which are being consumed (used and removed from the population) as they age over time.

Keywords

probit regression decision making multiple competing objectives stockpile management

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