Effects of contextual factors and fixture congestion on shooting efficiency and tactical behavior in the Chinese Basketball Association

Abstract

This study examines how contextual factors and fixture congestion affect shooting efficiency and tactical behavior in professional basketball. Data were analyzed from 982 games in the 2023–2024 regular season of the Chinese Basketball Association. Principal component analysis was performed on 68 technical–tactical variables, yielding 13 factors that accounted for 83.2% of the total variance. Linear mixed-effects models indicated that winning teams exhibited higher shooting efficiency (Effect size = 0.75, p < 0.001) and transition offense (ES = 0.61, p < 0.001) compared with losing teams. When facing stronger opponents, teams tend to perform more hand-off (ES = 0.25, p = 0.024) and pick-and-pop (ES = 0.27, p = 0.044), but fewer transitions (d = –0.51, p < 0.001) and lower cuts-creation-and-finishing efficiency (ES = –0.55, p < 0.001) compared with games against weaker opponents. Close games (≤9-point margin) showed higher foul (ES = 0.35, p < 0.001) and defensive intensity (ES = 0.23, p = 0.023) compared with unbalanced and balanced games. Recovery periods (≥ 3 days) have a negative impact on shooting efficiency (ES = –0.23, p = 0.008), isolation offense (ES = –0.23, p = 0.024), and defensive intensity (ES = –0.24, p = 0.023). These findings indicate that shooting efficiency and play type metrics in professional basketball are strongly affected by contextual factors, including game outcome, game location, opponent level, score line, and fixture congestion.