To return forward or backward? that is the question: Analysing and predicting return positioning in elite men's doubles tennis

Abstract

Return positioning is a critical yet understudied tactical element in elite men's doubles tennis. This study analysed 21,881 Hawk-Eye tracked returns from 101 professional matches to identify distinct return depth patterns, compare associated serve characteristics, and develop predictive models. K-Means clustering revealed Short (approx. 11.1 m from net) and Deep (approx. 12.5 m) return clusters on both Deuce and Advantage sides. Deep return positions were significantly associated with higher serve speeds (d > 1.02), first serves (V > 0.43), and T-serves (V > 0.30), while short return positions correlated with lower speeds, second serves, and wide serves (all p < 0.001). Break point status was not significant. Classification and Regression Tree models, primarily using serve speed and type, predicted return depth with good accuracy (77–79%) and AUC (0.77–0.79). These findings demonstrate that elite players systematically adapt their return depth based on serve characteristics, likely to manage response time and angles considering the opposing net player. This provides novel empirical quantification of doubles return strategies, offering valuable insights for tactical training and performance analysis.