Penalty kick analysis in the FIFA Men’s World Cup: The rise of keeper-dependent strategy

Abstract

Penalty kicks in FIFA World Cups often play a decisive role in determining match outcomes. Our study analysed 64 in-match penalties from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 FIFA Men's World Cups, focusing on player running behaviours (fluent vs. non-fluent) to investigate the prevalence of specific penalty strategies during these tournaments. Penalty strategy (keeper-independent and keeper-dependent), situational (tournament year, tournament stage, match period, match status), individual (footedness), and performance indicators (shoot direction, goalkeeper's action, outcome) were collected from the three successive World Cups. Chi-square tests were conducted to evaluate the relationships between indicators and strategies. Adjusted standardised residuals were calculated to identify significant cell contributions and support further analysis. Results: (1) Keeper-dependent strategies were used significantly more frequently in the 2022 World Cup compared to 2018 and had higher scoring rates than keeper-independent; (2) low shots were more frequent for keeper-dependent penalties; (3) goalkeepers remained in the middle more often when facing the keeper-dependent strategy. Conclusion: The use of keeper-dependent strategy increased across the 2014, 2018, and 2022 FIFA World Cups, with higher scoring rates. Players using this strategy are more inclined to shoot low, while goalkeepers tend to stay in the middle. Match period, stage, and status did not significantly impact penalty strategy, suggesting that players maintained the same strategy across different contexts. Coaches and players should prioritise mastering the keeper-dependent strategy while understanding the advantages and limitations of both penalty strategies. Flexibly adopting these strategies could contribute to enhancing penalty kick scoring rates.