The Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality as a Function of Major Risk Factors in Over 30000 Men in the Italian RIFLE Pooling Project. A Comparison with the MRFIT Primary Screenees

Abstract

Background: Few risk functions for the prediction of coronary heart disease mortality have been produced in Italy. This study used a large population sample to evaluate the effect of major risk factors on coronary mortality.

Methods: Coronary deaths in 45 cohorts of men (n = 31 317, aged 30–69 years) were studied and related to selected cardiovascular risk factors.

Results: After 6 years, 1089 men had died, of whom 239 were coronary fatalities. Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses conducted on each age group (30–39, 40–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years) showed a positive association between coronary deaths and systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol level and cigarette smoking, with few exceptions. A multiple logistic model was produced for men aged 35–57 years, assessing the role of age, serum cholesterol, cigarettes smoked per day and diastolic instead of systolic blood pressure, using the same endpoint as that employed in a similar model published from the analysis of MRFIT primary screenees in the USA to facilitate valid comparison. The coefficients in the present study were similar to those in the US cohort: No statistically significant differences could be detected when comparing the pairs of coefficients.

Conclusion: Coefficients relating cholesterol, blood pressure and cigarette smoking to coronary mortality in Italian men are similar to those in American men from the same age groups.