Examining the Role of Seasonal Uncertainty in Lower Tier Soccer

Abstract

Given inconsistent empirical evidence for the claim that consumer demand for sports entertainment peaks at maximum match uncertainty, scholars have made efforts to revise the concept of match uncertainty building on behavioral economics. In contrast, seasonal uncertainty has attracted considerably less scholarly attention. The current contribution aims to contribute to the debate by examining the role of seasonal uncertainty in the hyper-competitive environment of lower tier soccer. We conduct a quantitative case study on the German 3. Liga, which employs different proxies for seasonal uncertainty. Contrary to theoretical assumptions, seasonal uncertainty does not appear to be a main driver of attendance in the 3. Liga. Seasonal uncertainty is not more important than match uncertainty. The 3. Liga appears to be perceived as a championship in its own right and not only as a “bottleneck.” The findings come with theoretical and methodological implications.