The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is revisited in this paper in the context of a more general demand analysis of free-to-air soccer games broadcast in Spain. Apart from analyzing some expected determinants of television viewers’ aggregate behavior, such as the quality of the game and the type of match broadcast, and other seasonal effects, an alternative approach based on bettor predictions of the possible outcome of a particular match is used to test this hypothesis. The empirical findings show that expected uncertainty of outcome may either have no effect on (soccer) TV audiences or lead television viewer behavior in different directions according to the type of match broadcast.
AlavyK., GaskellA., LeachS., & SzymasnkiS. (2010). On the edge of your seat: Demand for football on television and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. International Journal of Sport Finance, 5, 75–95.
2.
BoulierB., & SteklerH. (2003). Predicting the Outcomes of National Football League Games. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 257–270.
3.
BuraimoB., & SimmonsR. (2008). Do sports fans really value uncertainty of outcome? Evidence from the English Premier League. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3, 146–155.
4.
BuraimoB., & SimmonsR. (2009). A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty on Spanish football. Journal of Economics and Business, 61, 326–338.
5.
BuraimoB., & SimmonsR. (2015). Uncertainty of Outcome or star quality? Television audience demand for English Premier League football. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 22, 449–469.
6.
ChungJ., LeeY. H., & KangJ. (2016). Ex-ante and ex post expectations of outcome uncertainty and baseball television viewership. Journal of Sports Economics, 17, 790–812.
7.
CoatesD., HumphreysB., & ZhouL. (2014). Reference-dependent preferences, loss aversion, and live game attendance. Economic Inquiry, 52, 959–973.
8.
CortisD. (2015). Expected values and variances in bookmakers payouts: A theoretical approach towards setting limits on odds. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 9, 1–14.
9.
DangT. M., BoothR., BrooksR., & SchyntzerA. (2015) Do TV viewers value uncertainty of outcome? Evidence from the Australian Football League. Economic Record, 91, 523–535.
10.
FeddersenA., HumphreysB. R., & SoebbingB. P. (2017). Sentiment bias and asset prices: Evidence from sports betting markets and social media. Economic Inquiry, 55, 1119–1129.
11.
FeddersenA., & RottA. (2011). Determinants of demand for televised live football: Features of the German National football team. Journal of Sports Economics, 12, 352–369.
12.
ForrestD., GoddardJ., & SimmonsR. (2005). Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 551–564.
13.
ForrestD., & SimmonsR. (2000). Forecasting sport: The behaviour and performance football tipsters. International Journal of Forecasting, 16, 317–331.
14.
ForrestD., & SimmonsR. (2008). Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football. Applied Economics, 40, 119–126.
15.
ForrestD., SimmonsR., & BuraimoB. (2005). Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience. Scottish Journal of Political Economy.52, 641–661.
16.
GarcíaJ., & RodríguezP. (2006). The determinants of TV audiences for Spanish football: A first approach. In RodriguezP., KesenneS., & GarciaJ. (Eds.), Sports economics after fifty years: Essays in honuour of Simon Rottenberg (pp. 147–167). Oviedo, Spain: Ediciones de la Universidad de Oviedo.
17.
KleinbaumD., KupperL., & MullerK. (1998). Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods.Boston, MA: PWS-KENT Publishing Company.
18.
PaulR., & WeinbachA. (2015). The beating market as a forecast of television rating for prime-time NFL football. International Journal of Sports Finance, 10, 284–296.
19.
PawlowskiT., & AndersC. (2012). Stadium attendance in German professional football: The (un)importance of uncertainty of outcome reconsidered. Applied Economics Letters, 19, 1553–1556.
20.
PérezL., PuenteV., & RodríguezP. (2015). Are broadcasting sporting events of “general interest?” A regional panel data analysis of TV ratings for Spain's La Liga. Journal of Media Economics, 28, 7–19.
21.
SalagaS., & TainskyS. (2015). The effects of outcome uncertainty, scoring and pre-game expectations on Nielsen ratings for Bowl Championship Series Games. Journal of Sports Economics, 16, 439–459.
22.
SkrokL. (2016). The pitfalls of econometric tests of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis: Interdependence of variables, imperfect proxies, and unstable parabols. International Journal of Sport Finance, 11, 232–246.
23.
StrumbeljE. (2016). A comment on the bias of probabilities derived from betting odds and their use in measuring outcome uncertainty. Journal of Sports Economics, 17, 12–26.
24.
SurowieckiJ. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York, NY: Doubleday.
