Kickers in the NFL have two jobs. The first is kicking off. The second is scoring via field goal attempts and extra points. Of these two actions, the latter's impact on outcomes is most easily observed. Decision-makers should be able to go beyond simple visual observation and evaluate actions in terms of their impact on outcomes. Consistent with past research in baseball and basketball, though, we find evidence that decision-makers undervalue the factor that is hardest to visually connect to outcomes.
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