This paper investigates the determinants of game-day attendance in the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) from 2001 to 2007. We include measures of league-level uncertainty and game uncertainty for two rivals at the same time in a quantile regression model. The results support the hypothesis of outcome uncertainties. Closer wins by the competing teams within a league and a smaller gap in terms of the winning percentage between two teams induces more outcome uncertainty, and consequently leads to higher attendance. Moreover, the results of the quantile regression show that these effects are especially enhanced in high box-office (highquantile) games. These results hold for different measures of competitive balance. Other factors such as the quality of play and the Derby effect also significantly influence game-day attendance. Moreover, the transportation cost of a game is less important in a league with a high density of stadiums.
BorlandJ., & MacdonaldR. (2003). Demand for sport. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,19(4), 478–502.
2.
BrandesL., & FranckE. (2007). An empirical analysis of competitive balance in European soccer leagues. Eastern Economic Journal,33(3), 379–403.
3.
BresuschT., & PangnA. (1979). Simple A. Test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica,47, 1287–1294.
4.
BuraimoB., & SimmonsR. (2008a). Do sports fans really value uncertainty of outcome? Evidence from the English Premier League. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3, 146155.
5.
BuraimoB., & SimmonsR. (2009). A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football. Journal of Economics and Business,61(4), 326–338. CameronA. C., & TrivediP. K. (2009). Microeconometrics using stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.
6.
DepkenC. A., & WilsonD. P. (2006). The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis In Division IA college football. Working Paper.
7.
EckardE. W. (1998). The NCAA cartel and competitive balance in college football. Review of Industrial Organization,13(3), 347–369.
8.
EckardE. W. (2001). Free agency, competitive balance, and diminishing returns to pennant contention. Economic Inquiry,39(3), 430–443.
9.
FalterJ. M., & PerignonC. (2000). Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: An essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports. Applied Economics,32, 1757–1765.
10.
ForrestD., & SimmonsR. (2002). Outcome uncertainty and attendance demand in sport: The case of English soccer. The Statistician,51(2), 229–241.
11.
GarciaJ., & RodriguezP. (2002). The determinants of football match attendance revisited: Empirical evidence from the Spanish football league. Journal of Sports Economics,3(1), 1838.
12.
GrierK. B., & TollisonR. D. (1994). The rookie draft and competitive balance: The case of professional football. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,25, 293–298.
13.
HumphreysB. (2002). Alternative measures of competitive balance in sporting leagues. Journal of Sports Economics,3(2), 133–148.
14.
JennettN. (1984). Attendance, uncertainty of outcome and policy in Scottish league football.
15.
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,31, 176–198.
16.
JonesJ. C. H., & FergusonD. G. (1988). Location and survival in the National Hockey League. Journal of Industrial Economics,36(4), 443–457.
17.
KnowlesG., SheronyK., & HaupertM. (1992). The demand for Major League Baseball: A test of the outcome uncertainty hypothesis. The American Economist, 36, 72–80.
18.
KoenkerR., & BassettG. S. (1978). Regression quantile. Econometrica,48, 33–50. KoenkerR. (2005). Quantile regression. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
19.
Meehan, Jr. , J. W., NelsonR. A., & RichardsonT. V. (2007). Competitive balance and game attendance in Major League Baseball. Journal of Sports Economics, 8(6), 563–580.
20.
MichieJ., & OughtonC. (2004). Competitive balance in football: Trends and effects. Research Paper 2004 No.2 in Football Governance Research Centre.
21.
MizakD., StairA., & RossiA. (2005). Assessing alternative competitive balance measures for sports leagues: A theoretical examination of standard deviations, gini coefficients, the index of dissimilarity. Economics Bulletin,12(5), 1–11.
22.
OwenP. D., & WeatherstonC. R. (2004). Uncertainty of outcome and super 12 rugby union attendance: Application of a general-to-specific modeling strategy. Journal of Sports Economics,5(4), 347–370.
23.
PeelD. A., & ThomasD. A. (1988). Outcome uncertainty and the demand for football: An analysis of match attendances in the English football league. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,35, 242–249.
24.
PeelD. A., & ThomasD. A. (1996). Attendance demand: An investigation of repeat fixtures. Applied Economics Letters,3, 391–394.
25.
PowellJ. L. (1986). Censored regression quantiles. Journal of Econometrics,32, 143–155.
26.
PriceD., & SanK. (2003). The demand for game day attendance in college football: An analysis of the 1997 Division 1-A season. Managerial and Decision Economics,24, 35–46.
27.
QuirkJ., & FortR. (1992). Pay dirt: The business of professional team sports. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
28.
RascherD. (1999). A test of the optimal positive production network externality in Major League Baseball. In GustafsonE. & HadleyL. (Eds.), Sports economics: Current research. Westport, CT: Praeger Press.
29.
RascherD., & SolmesJ. (2007). Do fans want close contests? A test of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in the National Basketball Association. International Journal of Sport Finance,2, 130–141.
30.
RottenbergS. (1956). The baseball players’ labor market. Journal of Political Economy, 64, 242258.
31.
SandersonA. R., & SiegfriedJ. J. (2003). Thinking about competitive balance. Journal of Sports Economics,4(4), 255–279.
32.
SchmidtM., & BerriD. (2001). Competitive balance and attendance: The case of Major League Baseball. Journal of Sports Economics,2(2), 145–167.
33.
ScullyG. (1989). The business of Major League Baseball. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
34.
SzymanskiS. (2003). The economic design of sporting contests. Journal of Economic Literature,41, 1137–1187.
35.
SzymanskiS., & KésenneS. (2004). Competitive balance and gate revenue sharing in team sports. The Journal of Industrial Economics,52(1), 165–177.
36.
UttJ., & FortR. (2002). Pitfalls to measuring competitive balance with gini coefficients. Journal of Sports Economics,3(4), 367–373.
37.
WinfreeJ. A., McCluskeyJ. J., MittelhammerR. C., & FortR. (2004). Location and attendance in Major League Baseball. Applied Economics,36, 2117–2124.
38.
ZimbalistA. S. (2002). Competitive balance in sports leagues: An introduction. Journal of Sports Economics,3(2), 111–121.
39.
ZimbalistA. S. (2003). Competitive balance conundrums: Response to Fort and Maxcy's comments. Journal of Sports Economics,4, 161–163.
