“Assessing strategic relevance in accordance with the second principle of the Weinberger Doctrine: quantifying adversarial forces in the Ukraine–Russia conflict through the Entropy Synergy Multi-Attribute Decision-Making (ES-MADM) model”

Abstract

This paper introduces the Entropy Synergy Multi-Attribute Decision-Making (ES-MADM) model as a novel quantitative framework for assessing military capabilities within the strategic context of the Weinberger Doctrine. Specifically addressing the doctrine’s second principle—the requirement for a high probability of success prior to military engagement—the ES-MADM model integrates entropy-based uncertainty metrics with synergistic multi-criteria decision structures to produce a doctrine-aligned, data-driven assessment of adversarial forces. To demonstrate its applicability, the model is applied to a case study of the Ukraine–Russia conflict, revealing critical asymmetries and identifying the most decisive military factors shaping the probability of operational success. A comparative analysis is also performed using uniform subjective weights to validate the model’s sensitivity to expert bias. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis quantifies the precise reinforcements needed to shift strategic parity, underscoring the model’s utility in scenario-based planning. While ES-MADM effectively captures quantifiable combat attributes, it also acknowledges limitations in evaluating qualitative variables such as morale, readiness, and training—factors that often exert substantial influence on battlefield outcomes. By offering a transparent, replicable, and analytically rigorous tool, ES-MADM enhances doctrine-based military planning, enabling decision-makers to evaluate operational scenarios with improved clarity, traceability, and strategic foresight.