A stochastically driven combat attrition performance prediction model

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the development of a stochastically driven combat attrition model to assess the performance of a sniper targeting a small group of combatants. The study consists of two main components. The first is to produce a model for the probability of hit as a function of distance to the target, while the second develops a stochastic modelling framework to undertake sniper performance prediction under various conditions. The data used to produce the probability of hit have been based upon sniper error budget analysis through the US Army Research Laboratory’s Project White Feather. Utilising data provided through this project, a mathematical model is proposed for the probability of hit and is then validated across a series of four types of sniper weapons, two with enhanced fire control. Through an application of this model, a basic sniper engagement scenario is examined, and a performance prediction capability is developed. This then allows one to answer questions concerning the expected number of combatants killed over time, especially when the sniper is required to complete a mission as quickly as possible to avoid being targeted by the combat team’s fire support.