Challenges of incorporating wounded personnel into small arms combat simulations

Abstract

Small arms combat modeling is one method to describe raw human performance data in terms of lethality. This process uses a series of Monte Carlo simulations based on observed data to convert measurements of speed and accuracy into a quantifiable chance of winning a combat engagement. A major issue within these modeling efforts involves the assumptions of incorporating wounded personnel. Realistic combat will have scenarios where shots fired strike adversaries without killing them, and therefore, this element cannot be ignored. However, there are at least four significant assumptions made during the modeling and simulation effort when incorporating wounded personnel: (1) assigning damage inflicted by shots, (2) tracking wounded personnel, (3) reducing combat effectiveness of wounded personnel, and (4) burdening other fighters in the simulation. Here, we outline the challenges posed by each assumption and discuss possible solutions. Whatever the final decision for a particular modeling effort, the assumptions made should always be clearly documented in the “Methods” section. Wounded personnel will likely require several such assumptions be made that could affect the outcome; nevertheless, wounded personnel should be represented in some capacity in any small arms combat modeling effort.