SaffoP.Six rules for effective forecasting. Harv Bus Rev2007; 85: 122–131.
2.
FriedmanM.Essays in positive economics. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1953, p. 15.
3.
SingerJD.The peace researcher and foreign policy prediction. Pap Peace Sci Soc Int1973; 21: 1–13.
4.
SchrodtPA.Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis. J Peace Res2013; 51: 287–300.
5.
HegreHMetternichNWNygardNM, et al. Introduction: forecasting in peace research. J Peace Res2017; 54: 113–124.
6.
GoldstoneJABatesRHEpsteinDL, et al. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. American Journal of Political Science2010; 54: 190–208.
7.
O’BrienSP. Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research. International Studies Review2010; 12: 87–104.
8.
WatsonBWatsonSHoppleG.United States intelligence: an encyclopedia. New York: Garland Publishing, Inc., 1990, p. 594.
9.
LillyBAblonLHodgsonQE, et al. Applying indications and warnings frameworks to cyber incidents. In: 11th international conference on cyber conflict: silent battle (eds MinárikTAlataluSBiondiSSignorettiMTolgaIViskyG), Tallinn, Estonia, 28–31 May 2019, pp. 81–102. Tallinn, Estonia: NATO CCD COE Publications.
