Modern security problems focus on sensibly allocating resources to decrease the magnitude of potential hazards, decrease the chances of adversary success given an attempt, or minimize loss following a successful attack. The focus of this paper is on developing a simple, yet analytically sound tool that facilitates rapid assessments of security system non-performance in terms of probability of adversary success at the facility or asset level using concepts from fuzzy logic. Beginning with a short overview of how security system performance fits within an overall security risk analysis frame-work, this paper presents the basic concepts of fuzzy systems and applies them to develop a model that approximates the true relationship between defensive capabilities and probability of adversary success. A simple example demonstrating the proposed model to support decision making accompanies this discussion. This paper concludes with a strategy for implementation of the proposed model in an operational setting.
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