An Analysis of Uncertainty in the Marine Corps

Abstract

In an effort to better understand the nature of uncertainty faced by Marine Corps warfighters, Klein Associates conducted an exploratory study of uncertainty. We developed a method for classifying levels and sources of uncertainty and we studied Marines in action to determine the specific types of uncertainty that occurs on the battlefield. Uncertainty can exist at the levels of raw data, inferences drawn from data, or projections/diagnoses from multiple inferences and/or data. The sources of uncertainty include missing, unreliable, ambiguous/conflicting, or complex information.

We observed decision makers at regimental and battalion command posts during a military exercise and recorded instances where they faced uncertainty. We coded these instances for both the level and source of the uncertainty. The uncertainty events we observed clustered around missing, unreliable and ambiguous data, ambiguous inferences, and ambiguous projections. These areas have implications for the design of supports for operating in the midst of uncertainty.