Decision Support in the Cockpit: Probably a Good Thing?

Abstract

This paper considers the use of Expert Decision Support systems in the context of military fast-jet aircraft, with particular reference to the concept of the Electronic Crewmember or Pilot's Associate. Two studies are described which were carried out to investigate the utility of one such approach, that of providing explicit, system-generated probability estimates at the interface to reduce the uncertainty associated with the decision. Subjects were required to make ‘real-world’ driving/navigation decisions with and without externally generated probability labels. Decision latencies, subjective confidence, and memory for details of the decision were measured. It was found that the provision of probability values, which clearly distinguished between decision options, reduced decision latencies and increased subjective confidence, without interfering with memory for relevant details of the decision. Probability values with very small absolute differences between options increased the decision times. The results are used to attempt to provide a tentative information processing model of decision making and to identify areas of further research which are necessary.