Psychological Scaling of Expert Estimates of Human Error Probabilities: Application to Nuclear Power Plant Operation

Abstract

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a project to evaluate psychological scaling techniques for use in qenerating estimates of human error probabilities. The project evaluated two techniques: direct numerical estimation and paired comparisons. Expert estimates were found to be consistent across and within judaes. Converaent validity was good, in comparison to estimates in a handbook of human reliability. Predictive validity could not be established because of the lack of actual relative frequencies of error (which will be a difficulty inherent in validation of any procedure used to estimate HEPs). Application of expert estimates in probabilistic risk assessment and in human factors is discussed.

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