Abstract
Although the concept of accident-proneness has fallen into disfavor because of the failure to statistically identify accident repeaters from their personality characteristics, it may be possible to predict mishap liability for those who enter a military flying career.
The 16PF, Motivational Analysis Test and the Athletic Motivation Inventory administered to U. S. Naval Academy freshman classes were examined. Scores of over 1700 graduates from the classes of 1975-1981, who were subsequently designated as naval aviators, were studied. Using their flight hours and mishaps accumulated during the first two to five years of their flying careers, a mishap rate was calculated for low and high groups on each personal dimension.
Scores were placed into ten stens within each dimension (e.g., reserved-outgoing) based on the standardization sampling of all U. S. college undergraduates. Due to the normal distribution of scores, stens 1 and 10 had very low numbers. Any rate based on so few cases was very unstable. One or two mishaps could change the rate dramatically. Therefore, the mishap rates were examined by grouping stens. A chi square test was used to determine if sten ranges differed significantly in their aircraft mishap rates. There were 9 of 67 dimensions in which the sten ranges differed significantly. These are discussed.
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