A Forecasting Method for Training Effectiveness Analysis

Abstract

In dealing with emerging materiel systems early in their life cycle, the selection of an acceptable training program often requires the use of a training effectiveness forecast methodology. Methods traditionally used to determine training effectiveness require data that are not available until after many important training-related decisions have been made. A training effectiveness forecasting method is described that combines the development of viable training program alternatives, the estimation of individual task training effectiveness, the estimation of training program effectiveness, and the integration of cost data to determine the most cost-effective training approach. The methodology has the advantage of fixing neither effectiveness nor cost. Rather, the procedure allows for later consideration of either constraint as part of the selection criterion. Although the emphasis of the presentation is on the estimation of training effectiveness, extended uses of the resulting data are noted, including assessing trainability, training time requirements, and requirements for maintenance or refresher training.