Bayesian Network for Assessing Performance in Complex Navigation - A Conceptual Model

Abstract

The maritime industry is considered the backbone of the global economy, enabling efficient transport of goods with a commercial value of about $829 Billion USD through a network of over 90,000 ships, and employing approximately 1.6 million people worldwide. Maritime navigation is a complex and dynamic operational process. On a vessel, demands are put on the human operators (e.g., the captain) with regards to their competence and task execution, as well as the reliability of the technical system. Understanding and assessing human performance is imperative to optimize individual factors for safe and efficient voyages. The human operator and the technical system are interdependent for ensuring this, and sociotechnical characteristics of the system and operations should thus be considered in the assessment. Recent accidents call for a further understanding of this interdependent relationship between socio-related and technical aspects of maritime operations. This paper proposes a conceptual framework using a Bayesian Network and expert elicitation methods to systematically organize maritime navigational demands.