Reconsidering the “Conventional Wisdom” of the Relationship between False Alarms and Risk Beliefs

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to examine how false alarm experience of weather-related emergencies affects the relationship between perceived danger and desire for warnings. Participants reported how dangerous they perceived each event to be, whether they believed warnings should be distributed, whether they had experienced the event, and whether they had experienced a false alarm of the event. Participants indicated strong agreement for the desire for weather warnings. Although the literature implies that people who have experienced many false alarms may perceive that danger as less severe in the future due to the “crywolf effect,” our data suggest that people have a heightened risk perception and desire for warnings of those events. Because memories inform mental representations that guide decision-making in uncertain situations, it is imperative that future research continue to examine what people have stored in memory of false alarm experiences to settle debates in the contentious literature of false alarms and risk perception.