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Abstract

In information integration tasks, anchoring is a prominent heuristic, such that the first few arriving information sources (cues) tend to be given greater weight on the final integration product, than those cues following. Such a bias may be particularly problematic when the situation is dynamic, such that earlier arriving cues are more likely to have changed, and hence are less reliable for the final integration judgment. Such is often the case in military intelligence, when enemy intentions are inferred from multiple sources. We describe results of a simulation of such intelligence gathering in which anchoring is prominently manifest, in the processing of seven sequentially delivered cues bearing on enemy threat. In Experiment 1, an anchoring bias was present. In Experiment 2, a simple “de-biasing” wording inserted in the instructions and emphasizing the age of intelligence information induced more optimal weighting of the most recent cues, but did not eliminate anchoring.

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The Anchoring Heuristic in Intelligence Integration: A Bias in Need of De-Biasing

Abstract

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