Human “Mis”-perceptions of Climate Change

Abstract

This research improves our understanding of the Stock-Flow (SF) Failure, found to be a robust problem in the perception of accumulation (Cronin, Gonzalez, & Sterman, 2009). We demonstrate the SF Failure with an interactive simulation in a relevant climate change context (Dynamic Climate Change Simulator (DCCS). In DCCS the climate change problem was simplified to an accumulation (stock), CO₂ concentration; inflows, anthropogenic CO₂ emissions; and outflows, CO₂ absorptions from the atmosphere; using realistic climate models and their predictions. DCCS was used in a laboratory experiment to test participants' ability to control the CO₂ concentration to a goal over 100 to 200 simulated years. Participants confronted one of four scenarios differing in emission decision frequency (every 2 years or 4 years) and rate of CO₂ transfer from the atmosphere (1.2% or 1.6%, of CO₂ concentration). Results show that performance in controlling CO₂ concentration remained poor in all conditions of the task. An investigation of participant control strategies revealed misperceptions of feedback: participants brought CO₂ concentration to the goal fastest for the condition where dynamics were slow and emission decisions were made less frequently, yet their stabilization after reaching the goal remained worst under the same conditions.