Abstract
An Evacuation Software Prediction (ESP) tool is described which allows regional managers to rapidly evaluate numerous contingencies for the evacuation of large numbers of people from an affected area and to statistically compare response strategies. This discrete event computer simulation tool is further distinguished by considering varying degrees of human emotional responsiveness to emergency evacuation, ranging from orderly calm to confused panic. The ESP tool's predicted results compared well with the observed results from rush hour traffic. A linear regression model showed that both predicted and observed sample speeds correlated well with traffic number over the samples. If the traffic flow problem presented during a typical rush hour can be used to substantiate evacuation traffic flow days or hours before a hurricane landfall, then the ESP tool may prove useful in evaluating countermeasure effectiveness for the 2006 hurricane season.
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