The Effect of Driver Age and Experience on Risk Assessment and Risk Prediction

Abstract

Of the 35,000 drivers and passengers who died in traffic crashes each year between 1975 and 1998, older adults (65 and older) accounted for 10% of all fatalities in 1975 and 17% in 1998. Such drivers will account for a projected 27% by 2015. In addition, the number of older drivers will increase two-thirds by the year 2030. These facts present a threat to the safety of the motoring public. It is hypothesized that older adults have such a high crash rate because they are less likely to recognize risks than experienced, middle-aged drivers. An experiment on an advanced, fixed-base driving simulator was designed and performed to test this hypothesis. Participants' eye movements were tracked throughout each drive. It is inferred that drivers are not aware of risks that could potentially materialize at a particular area of the roadway when they fail to direct their gaze at such areas. However, contrary to our hypothesis, the older drivers were just as likely to recognize the risks as the middle-aged drivers.