Confirmation Bias in Scientific Reasoning: The Roles of Gender,Perceived Competence and Actual Competence

Abstract

It has been previously shown that there is a relationship between level of metacognitive ability and estimation of ability for largely verbally-based tasks; those with lessened facility for the task tend to overestimate their aptitude relative to their peers (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). This study examines this effect for a task of mechanical ability, where subjects (n = 69) were given an abbreviated Bennett Mechanical Comprehension Test (BMCT) to establish a level of competency. Participants were then asked to estimate a grade for their performance, as well as the relationship between their hypothetical grade, and the grades of others. Participants then explained the solution to one of the problems, and their explanations were coded for degree of bias towards confirmation versus disconfirmation. Females on the high and low ends of skill were more likely to use a confirmatory approach when there was a discrepancy between Perceived Relative Competence, and Actual Competence.