Investigating Dynamic Environments Using the Game of Diplomacy

Abstract

Cognitive engineers are constantly exploring human performance in naturalistic environments. Recently, cognitive engineering techniques have been utilized by the intelligence community as potential tools to improve human performance. In this study, the game of Diplomacy was used as a testbed for applying Brunswik's Lens Model to dynamic environments containing multiple agents. The game of Diplomacy is based on the diplomatic relationships between the seven Great Powers of Europe just prior to the start of World War I. In contrast to many two-player strategic games, the game of Diplomacy includes seven independent players moving simultaneously, players creating and breaking alliances, and an historically-based playing board; yet one game can be completed in a few hours. This study, which was based on archival data, compares the judgmental policies of seven decision makers from two completed games. Limitations of this study and possibilities for using Diplomacy variants for future research are discussed.