An Investigation of the Factors that Contribute to Pilots' Decisions to Continue Visual Flight Rules Flight into Adverse Weather

Abstract

Pilots' decisions to continue or divert from a visual flight rules flight (VFR) into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) were investigated using a dynamic simulation of a hypothetical cross-country flight. Issues related to decision-making were investigated. Specifically, differences in situation assessment, risk perception and motivation, between pilots who chose to continue or divert from a VFR flight into IMC situation were examined. Results indicate that the simulation was successful in identifying pilots who would choose to either continue or divert and that differences existed between these two groups of pilots. Accuracy of visibility estimates, appraisal of one's own skill and judgment and frequency of risk-taking behavior were most important in predicting whether a pilot would continue or divert from a VFR flight into IMC situation. Findings suggest that overconfidence in personal ability and inaccurate diagnoses of visibility conditions precipitate VFR flight into IMC.