Analyzing the Release of Juvenile Lifers: Is There a Miller Effect?

Abstract

In the 2012 decision in Miller v. Alabama, the U.S. Supreme Court directed states to provide a “meaningful opportunity to obtain release” to juvenile lifers—one that acknowledges their lesser culpability and rehabilitative potential. In the state examined, the parole board revised its decision-making guidelines in 2014 by incorporating the Miller ruling. Logistic regression and survival analyses were employed to examine parole outcomes. Hearings that took place in the post-Miller period and the candidate’s rehabilitative status were associated with a higher likelihood of release. A candidate’s rehabilitative efforts were also associated with the amount of time taken to decide grant or denial of release, as were factors related to the candidate’s sentencing offense such as time served and opposition at the parole hearing. Overall, the guidelines representing the Miller ruling seem to have influenced the outcome as well as the speed at which decisions are reached by the parole board.

Keywords

juvenile lifers parole board survival analysis

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