Concurrent and Longitudinal Patterns and Trends in Performance on Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measures in Kindergarten Through Third Grade

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to extend the research on the Tests of Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measurement (TEN-CBM) tools by examining concurrent and predictive relations from kindergarten through third grade. Using a longitudinal sample of 535 students, this study included logistic regression, latent cluster, and latent transition analyses to examine the patterns and trends of student performance on all four TEN-CBM measures in kindergarten and first grade, math CBM (M-CBM) in first grade, and mathematics performance on a statewide high-stakes assessment in third grade. Results suggest that two of the TEN-CBM tools, Quantity Discrimination and Missing Number, are most robust at predicting later math performance. Longitudinal analysis indicated that students who are low performing in early numeracy at the beginning of kindergarten tend to be low performing in math at third grade. Low-achieving students also demonstrated a greater decrease in math skills over summer months when compared to higher-achieving peers.