This research examines economic retrospective voting in gubernatorial elections. Previous research has suggested that there is little (if any) accountability for state economic conditions in these elections. In the research presented here, however, the author found evidence of economic retrospective voting in the 1990 gubernatorial elections, while controlling for potentially dominant national forces such as presidential popularity and the perceived health of the national economy. These findings (along with some of the more recent research in this area) suggest that perhaps the scholarly conventional wisdom about these elections needs to be reevaluated.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Beyle, Thad L., and Lynn Muchmore, eds. 1983. Being governor: A view from the office. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
2.
Brace, Paul.1989. Isolating the economies of states. American Politics Quarterly17:256-76.
3.
—. 1991. The changing context of state political economy. Journal of Politics53:297-317.
4.
Chubb, John E.1988. Institutions, the economy, and the dynamics of state elections . American Political Science Review82:133-54.
5.
Donovan, Beth.1988. Voters give most governors a passing grade. CQ Weekly Report46:3296-98.
6.
—. 1989. '90 gubernatorial contests give key clues to future. CQ Weekly Report 47:2486-2510.
Fiorina, Morris P.1981. Retrospective voting in American national elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
9.
Grady, Dennis.1991. Managing the state economy: The governor's role in policymaking . In Gubernatorial leadership and state policy, edited by Eric B. Herzik and Brent W. Brown, 105-120. Westport, CT: Greenwood .
10.
Hendrick, Rebecca M., and James C. Garand .1991. Variation in state economic growth: Decomposing state, regional, and national effects. Journal of Politics53:1093-110.
11.
Holbrook-Provow, Thomas M.1987. National factors in gubernatorial elections. American Politics Quarterly15:471-83.
12.
Hosmer, David W., Jr. , and Stanley Lemeshow.1989. Applied logistic regression. New York: Wiley.
13.
Howell, Susan E., and James M. Vanderleeuw .1990. Economic effects on state governors. American Politics Quarterly18:158-68.
14.
Idelson, Holly.1990. Budgets, jobs, and abortion are big issues in states. CQ Weekly Report48:2840-48.
15.
Kenney, Patrick J.1983. The effects of state economic conditions on the vote for governor. Social Science Quarterly64:154-62.
16.
Key, V.O.1966. The responsible electorate. New York : Vintage.
17.
Kiewiet, D. Roderick.1983. Macroeconomics and micropolitics: The electoral effects of economic issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
18.
Kirschten, Dick.1990. Targets of discontent. National Journal45:2736-42.
19.
Markus, Gregory B.1988. The impact of personal and national economic conditions on the presidential vote: A pooled cross-sectional analysis. American Journal of Political Science32:137-54.
20.
Miller, Warren E., Donald R. Kinder, Steven J. Rosenstone, and the National Election Studies.1991. American national election study, 1990: Senate election study. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies; Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
21.
Peltzman, Sam.1987. Economic conditions and gubernatorial elections. American Economic Review77:293-97.
22.
Piereson, James E.1975. Presidential popularity and midterm voting at different electoral levels. American Journal of Political Science19:683-94.
23.
Sabato, Larry.1983. Goodbye to Goodtime Charlie: The American governorship transformed. 2d ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
24.
Simon, Dennis M.1989. Presidents, governors, and electoral accountability. Journal of Politics51:286-304.
25.
Simon, Dennis M., Charles W. Ostrom, Jr. , and Robin F. Marra.1991. The president, referendum voting, and subnational elections in the United States. American Political Science Review85:1178-92.
26.
Stein, Robert M.1990. Economic voting for governor and U.S. senator: The electoral consequences of federalism. Journal of Politics52:29-53.
27.
Tompkins, Mark E.1987. Changing the terms. Gubernatorial term reform in the modern era. Revised version of a paper first delivered at the 1981 annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Memphis, TN.
28.
—. 1988. Have gubernatorial elections become more distinctive contests?Journal of Politics50:192-205.
29.
Westlye, Mark C.1983Competitiveness of Senate seats and voting behavior in Senate elections. American Journal of Political Science27:253-83.
