This article modifies an earlier study by Bond and Fleisher that employed regression analysis to predict House members' support of Bush in 1989. The sample frame used in that investigation (1959-1974) to produce estimates is found to be inappropriate, and consequently, an alternative sample is offered. Drawing support from the larger literature on Congress that documents significant institutional change since the reforms of the 1960s and 1970s, as well as a variety of empirical data, a case is made for substituting an updated sample, one that better reflects the conditions that affect presidential support in the late 1980s. The differences in model parameters and predicted scores that result from this substitution are striking and clearly challenge previous findings. More generally, these results illustrate House dynamics and suggest that an accurate assessment of presidential success hinges critically on proper specification of the congressional context.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Achen, Christopher.1990. What does "explained variance" explain?: Reply. In Political analysis. An annual publication of the Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association, edited by James Stimson, vol. 2, 173-84. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
2.
Bond, Jon, and Richard Fleisher .1980. The limits of presidential popularity as a source of influence in the U.S. House. Legislative Studies Quarterly5:69-78.
3.
—. 1983. Assessing presidential support in the House: Lessons from Reagan and Carter. Journal of Politics45:745-57.
4.
—. 1984. Presidential popularity and congressional voting: A reexamination of public opinion as a source of influence in Congress. Western Political Quarterly 37:291-306.
5.
—. 1990. The president in the legislative arena. Chicago: University Press.
6.
—. 1992. Assessing presidential support in the House II: Lessons from George Bush. American Journal of Political Science36:525-41.
7.
Bond, Jon, Richard Fleisher, and Michael Northrup .1988. Public opinion and presidential support. Annals499 (September): 47-63.
8.
Brady, David, Joseph Cooper, and Patricia Hurley .1979. The decline of party in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1887-1968. Legislative Studies Quarterly4:381-407.
9.
Campbell, Colin, and Bert Rockman, eds. 1991. The Bush presidency: First appraisals. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
10.
Collie, Melissa, and David Brady.1985. The decline of partisan voting coalition in the House of Representatives. In Congress reconsidered, 3d ed., edited by Lawrence Dodd and Bruce Oppenheimer, 272-87. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Cox, Gary, and Mathew McCubbins .1991. On the decline of party voting in Congress. Legislative Studies Quarterly16:547-69.
13.
Davidson, Roger, ed. 1992. The postreform Congress. New York: St. Martin.
14.
Davidson, Roger, and Walter Oleszek.1977. Congress against itself. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.
15.
Edwards, George.1976. Presidential influence in the House: Presidential prestige as a source of presidential power. American Political Science Review70:101-13.
16.
—. 1980. Presidential influence in Congress. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
17.
Edwards, George, and Alec Gallup.1990. Presidential approval: A source book . Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
18.
Edwards, George, John Kessel , and Bert Rockman, eds. 1993. Researching the presidency: Vital questions, new approaches . Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press
19.
Gilmour, John.1992. Summits and stalemates: Bipartisan negotiations in the postreform era. In The postreform Congress, edited by Roger Davidson, 233-57. New York: St. Martin.
20.
Hanushek, Eric, and John Jackson.1977. Statistical methods for social scientists . San Diego, CA: Academic Press .
21.
Krosnick, Jon, and Laura Brannon.1993. The impact of the Gulf War on the ingredients of presidential evaluations: Multidimensional effects of political involvement . American Political Science Review87:963-75.
22.
Maddala, G.S.1977. Econometrics. Economics Handbook Series. New York: McGraw-Hill.
23.
Mann, Thomas, and Norman Ornstein, eds. 1981. The new Congress. Washington, DCAmerican Enterprise Institute.
24.
Ornstein, Norman, Thomas Mann, and Michael Malbin1990. Vital statistics on Congress, 1989-1990. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
25.
Ostrom, Charles, and Dennis Simon.1985. Promise and performance: A dynamic model of presidential popularity. American Political Science Review79:334-58.
26.
Pfiffner, James.1992. The president and the postreform Congress. In The postreform Congress, edited by Roger Davidson , 211-32. New York: St. Martin.
27.
Polsby, Nelson.1990. Political change and the character of the contemporary Congress. In The new American political system, edited by Anthony King, 29-47. Washington, DCAEI
28.
Rieselbach, Leroy.1986. Congressional reform. Washington, DC : CQ Press.
29.
Rivers, Douglas, and Nancy Rose.1985. Passing the president's program: Public opinion and presidential influence in Congress. American Journal of Political Science29:183-96.
30.
Rohde, David1991. Parties and leaders in the postreform House. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
31.
Schick, Allen.1986. The many faces of congressional budgeting. In Making government work, edited by R. Hunter , W. Berman, and J. Kennedy, 72-108. Boulder, CO: Westview .
32.
Sinclair, Barbara.1991. Governing unheroically (and sometimes unappetizingly) Bush and the 101st Congress. In The Bush presidency: First appraisals, edited by Colin Campbell and Bert Rockman, 155-84. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
33.
—. 1992. House majority party leadership in an era of legislative constraint. In The postreform Congress, edited by Roger Davidson, 91-111. New York: St. Martin
34.
Smith, Steven.1989. Call to order: Floor politics in the House and Senate . Washington, DC.Brookings Institution .
35.
Sundquist, James.1981. The decline and resurgence of Congress. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
36.
Thurber, James.1991. The impact of budget reform on presidential and congressional governance. In Divided democracy, edited by James Thurber, 145-71. Washington, DC: CQ Press
37.
White, Joseph, and Aaron Wildavsky .1989. The deficit and the public interest: The search for responsible budgeting in the 1980s. Los Angeles and Berkeley: University of California Press; New York: Russell Sage.
