Electoral Consequences of Scandal and Reapportionment in the 1992 House Elections

Abstract

The authors examine the electoral effects of political scandal and redistricting, two conventional wisdom explanations for 1992's higher than usual House turnover. They use the strategic politician theory as a basis for their analysis to examine retirements, primary outcomes, and general election outcomes. The theory assumes that politicians (both incumbents and challengers) behave strategically and will run or not run based on the prevailing political climate. The authors find support for the theory with regard to retirements; embattled incumbents are more likely to retire. Their analysis of the primary and general election outcomes, however, finds mixed support for the theory. Nevertheless, the check scandal and redistricting had a direct impact on the incumbent's vote margin, making the elections more competitive.