The Freshman Effect and Voting Alignments

Abstract

This article examines a frequently cited feature of judicial behavior known as the "freshman effect." Recent studies of contemporary justices have concluded that, contrary to the freshman effect hypothesis, newly appointed justices quickly join existing voting blocs. The failure of the empirical evidence to support the original hypothesis has led investigators to speculate on the changes on and off the Supreme Court that may have led to the decline of the freshman effect. By examining the voting behavior of the justices from 1922 to 1953, this article argues that the decline of the freshman effect is more apparent than real. The discrepancy between recent studies and the original hypothesis is clearly the result of methodological differences.