The Role of Media Coverage of Iowa and New Hampshire in the 1988 Democratic Nomination

Abstract

Media coverage of Iowa and New Hampshire has traditionally played a significant role in presidential nominations. The 1988 Democratic race is no exception. However, the media's effect was not particularly dramatic, and no candidate ever acquired media-driven momentum. The absence of momentum should not, however, obscure the fact that early coverage was essential to Dukakis's victory. This finding points to three relatively stable aspects of presidential nominations that help explain early media effects. These are the sequential nature of the nominating process, the low information levels and unstable opinions typical of the electorate early in the process, and the media's emphasis on the early contests and on the horse race. These characteristics interact to produce significant early media effects on presidential nominations.

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