How much influence do citizens have over government decisions? One way in which scholars have attempted to answer this question is by assessing the correspondence between public opinion and public policy. Past research has found that, sometimes, mass attitudes and government outputs have moved together, but these studies did not control for other factors which might cause policy change. This article tests a multivariate model describing the behavior of policy outputs in one substantive area over time. A simultaneous equation model of prison admissions, releases, and rated capacity is developed and its parameters estimated using time-series data from California for the period from 1946 through 1980. Two indicators of public preferences, the percentage of national poll respondents favoring capital punishment and the proportion of the vote for governor cast for the Republican party candidate, are found to exert significant effects on correctional policy outputs.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Achen, Christopher.1978. Measuring representationAmerican Journal of Political Science22:475-510
2.
. Austin, James, and Barry Krisberg.1985. Incarceration in the United States: The extent and future of the problemAnnals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences478:15-30
3.
. Berk, Richard A., Sheldon Messinger, David Rauma, and John Berecochea .1983. Prisons as self-regulating systems: A comparison of historical patterns in California for males and femalesLaw and Society Review17:547-86
4.
. Berk, Richard A., and Peter H. Rossi.1977. Prison reform and state elites.Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
5.
Blumstein, Alfred, and Jaqueline Cohen.1973. A theory of the stability of punishmentJournal of Criminal Law and Criminology64:198-206
6.
. Blumstein, Alfred, Jaqueline Cohen, and William Gooding.1983. The influence of capacity on prison population: A critical review of some recent evidenceCrime & Delinquency29:3-51
7.
. Blumstein, Alfred, Jaqueline Cohen, and Daniel Nagin.1977. The dynamics of a homeostatic punishment processJournal of Criminal Law and Criminology67:317-77
8.
. Blumstein, Alfred and Soumyo Moitra.1979. An analysis of the time series of the imprisonment rate in the states of the US: A further test of the stability of punishment hypothesisJournal of Criminal Law and Criminology70:376-90
9.
. Bureau of Justice Statistics.1986. Prisoners in 1985.Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
10.
—. 1989. Prisoners in 1988.Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
11.
California Department of Corrections.1950-80 . California prisoners.Sacramento : State of California.
12.
California Governor.1948-49through 1981-82. Governor's budget.Sacramento: State of California.
13.
California Secretary of State.1974. Statement of the vote. Sacramento: State of California. —. 1978. Statement of the vote.Sacramento: State of California.
14.
—. 1982. Statement of the vote.Sacramento : State of California.
15.
California statistical abstract1970. Sacramento: State of California.
16.
Carlson, Kenneth.1980American prisons and jails. Volume 2: Population trends and projections.Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
17.
Converse, Philip E., and Roy Pierce.1986. Political representation in France.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
18.
Cook, Beverly Blair.1977. Public opinion and federal judicial policyAmerican Journal of Political Science21:567-600
19.
. —. 1979. Judicial policy: Change over timeAmerican Journal of Political Science23:208-214
20.
. Cullen, Francis T., Gregory A. Clark, and John F. Wozniak .1985. Explaining the "get tough" movement: Can the public be blamed?Federal Probation49:16-24
21.
. Devine, D.J.1970. The attentive public: Polyarchial democracy.Chicago: Rand-McNally.
Durbin, J.1970. Testing for serial correlation in least-squares regression when some of the regressors are lagged dependent variablesEconometrics38:410-21
24.
. Dye, Thomas R.1966. Politics, economics and the public: Policy outcomes in the American states.Chicago: Rand-McNally.
25.
Eisenstein, James, and Herbert Jacob.1977. Felony justice: An organizational analysis of criminal courts.Boston: Little, Brown.
26.
Erikson, R.S.1976. The relationship between public opinion and state policy: A new look at some forgotten dataAmerican Journal of Political Science22:25-36
27.
. Erikson, R.S., Norman Lutbeg, and Kent Tedin.1980. American public opinion: Its origins, content and impact.2nd ed. New York : Wiley.
28.
Field, Mervin.1985. Level of public support for the death penalty at all-time high. Press releaseSan Francisco: California Poll.
29.
Gibson, James L.1980. Environmental constraints on the behavior of judges: A representational model of judicial decision makingLaw and Society Review14: 343-70
30.
. Gray, Virginia.1976. Models of comparative state politics: A comparison of cross-sectional and time series analysisAmerican Journal of Political Science20: 235-56
31.
. Hastings, Elizabeth H., Philip K. Hastings, eds. 1984. Index of international public opinion 1982-1983. Westport, CT: Greenwood.
32.
Heumann, Milton.1977. Plea bargaining: The experiences of prosecutors, judges and defense attorneysChicago: University of Chicago Press.
33.
Hirschi, Travis, and Michael Gottfredson.1983. Age and the explanation of crimeAmerican Journal of Sociology89:552-84
34.
. Johnston, John.1972. Econometric methods.2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
35.
—. 1984. Econometric methods.3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
36.
Judge, G.G., W.E. Griffiths, R.C. Hill, T.C. Lee.1980. The theory and practice of econometrics.New York: Wiley.
37.
Kuklinski, James, and John E. Stanga.1979. Political participation and governmental responsiveness: The behavior of the California superior courtsAmerican Political Science Review73:1090-99
38.
. Lee, Eugene.1963. California votes, 1928-1960.Berkeley: University of California Institute of Governmental Studies.
39.
Lewis-Beck, Michael.1977. The relative importance of socio-economic and political variables for public policyAmerican Political Science Review71:559-65
Mather, Lynn.1979. Plea bargaining or trial?Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
42.
Monroe, A.D.1978. Consistency between public preferences and national policy decisionsAmerican Politics Quarterly7:3-19
43.
. —. 1983. American party platforms and public opinionAmerican Journal of Political Science27:27-42
44.
. Mullen, Joan, and Bradford Smith.1980. American prisons and jails. Vol. 3: Conditions and costs of confinementWashington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
45.
Nagel, William.1973. The new red barn: A critical look at the modern American prison.New York: Walker.
46.
—. 1977. On behalf of a moratorium on prison constructionCrime & Delinquency23:154-72
47.
. Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro.1983. Effects of public opinion on policyAmerican Political Science Review77:175-90
48.
. Plotnick, Robert D, and Richard Winters.1985. A politico-economic theory of income redistributionAmerican Political Science Review79:458-73
49.
. Rhodes, Susan L.1987. The politics of confinement: Prison population and capacity change in post-war California. Ph.D. Diss, University of Illinois, Urbana.
50.
-. 1989. State policy-makers and the "get tough" movement: The politicization of crime and the prison overcrowding crisisPaper presented at the annual meeting of the Law and Society Association, Madison, WI
51.
SAS Institute.1982. SAS/ETS users' guide.Cary, NC: Statistical Analysis Systems.
52.
Scheingold, Stuart A.1984. The politics of law and order: street crime and public policyNew York: Longman.
53.
Sherman, Michael, and Gordon Hawkins.1981. Imprisonment in America: Choosing the future.Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
54.
Silver, Charles, and Robert Shapiro.1984. Public opinion and the federal judiciary: Crime, punishment, and demographic constraintsPopulation Research and Policy Review3:255-80
55.
. Stinchcombe, Arthur L., Rebecca Adams, Carol Heimer, Kim Lane Scheppele, Tom W. Smith, and D. Garth Taylor .1980. Crime and punishment: Changing attitudes in AmericaSan Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
56.
Walker, Samuel.1980. Popular justice: A history of American criminal justice.New York: Oxford University Press.
57.
Weissberg, Robert.1976. Public opinion and popular government.Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
58.
Wright, Gerald C., Robert S. Erikson, and John P. McIver.1987. Public opinion and policy liberalism in the American statesAmerican Journal of Political Science31:980-1001.
